The Obama administration calculates it's likely North Korea may test
fire mobile ballistic missiles at any time, based on the most recent
intelligence showing Pyongyang probably has completed launch
preparations, a U.S. official said Tuesday.
The administration
believes a test launch could happen without North Korea issuing a
standard notice to commercial aviation and maritime shipping warning
them to stay away from the missile's path, according to the official,
who declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the information.
He cautioned most of the
information comes from satellite imagery, so it's impossible to reach a
definitive conclusion because the United States has no means to gather
information on the ground.
"We hope they issue a
notification, but at this point we don't expect it. We are working on
the assumption they won't, " the official said.
He said the launch could be "imminent," but also cautioned that the United States "simply doesn't know."
The official, along with a
Pentagon official, said that the United States has been able to keep
satellites over the suspected launch area for most of the past week.
The United States thinks
the missiles remain at a point about halfway down the eastern coast of
North Korea and are about 10 miles inland.
Imagery has been impeded
by some bad weather, which means there is less than perfect knowledge
about what is happening on the ground. But based on what the United
States has seen, the belief is that the missiles have received their
liquid fuel and are ready for launch.
After any launch, U.S.
satellites and radars in the region would be able to calculate the
trajectory of missiles within minutes and quickly conclude whether they
are on a test path headed for open ocean or potentially headed for land
areas such as Japan.
The United States and Japan would then have to decide whether to try to shoot the missiles down, the officials said.
'Clear and direct' threat to U.S. security
Also Tuesday, the top
U.S. commander in the Pacific called repeated North Korean violations of
U.N. Security Council resolutions forbidding the "building and testing"
of long-range ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons "a clear and
direct threat to U.S. national security and regional peace and
stability."
"A major conflict in
Korea could have unpredictable, long term and far reaching impacts due
to the central location of the Korean peninsula in Northeast Asia and
the vital importance of Northeast Asian trade to the global economy,"
said Adm. Samuel J. Locklear, commander of the U.S. Pacific Command.
The admiral spoke at a Senate Armed Services hearing and submitted testimony to the committee.
He said he's confident
that the United States would be able to help defend U.S. forces and its
friends. He acknowledged the importance of China's role in reducing
tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
The hearing came as
North Korea issued its latest dispatch of ominous rhetoric Tuesday,
telling foreigners in South Korea they should take steps to protect
themselves in the event of a conflict.
"Kim Jong Un's stated
emphasis on economic development and promises of economic growth have so
far yielded little, and are undermined by North Korean missile launches
and nuclear tests that lead to further sanctions and international
isolation," Locklear said, referring to North Korea's leader.
"North Korea's nuclear
weapons and ballistic missile programs, its illicit sales of
conventional arms, and its ongoing proliferation activities remain a
threat to regional stability and underscore the requirement for
effective missile defense," he said.
The admiral was asked
whether there's ever been a time of greater tension among North Korea,
South Korea and the United States since the end of the Korean War in the
1950s.
"I would agree in my recollection, I don't know a greater time," he said.
The question of China
Asked about China and
its longtime close relationship with North Korea, he said the country
could play a key role in persuading the North Korean government to
engage in "restraint," but "they could do more."
Senators expressed
concerns, skepticism and outright criticism of China. Sen. Lindsey
Graham, R-South Carolina, called the country "a communist dictatorship"
that fears individual freedoms.
Locklear regards China as neither a friend nor a foe.
He said that sometimes,
China can be "more nuanced" than the United States, and he noted some
reporting that the leadership in China has made some statements about
the issue.
Over the weekend,
Chinese President Xi Jinping was quoted as saying that no nation "should
be allowed to throw a region and even the whole world into chaos for
selfish gain." While he didn't mention North Korea, the comments were
seen as a reference to Pyongyang.
"There no benefit to the
Chinese of having this type of activity occurring on their borders, no
possible benefit that I can see from this. So they will, I believe, in
time, work this problem to their national interest just like we do and
the South Koreans do," Locklear said
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